AAII - West Suburban Sub-Group in Naperville, IL . . . Newsletter & Information Blog

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Food For Thought

"A government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take everything you have."

-former Congressman David Crockett (you know him better as Frontiersman Davy Crockett).

Interpreting The Signals

One of the things we should look for as investors are stocks that have been doing worse than the market for quite a while, but give relative-strength BUY signals. This is a strong indication that the stock in question should eventually be a good performer for a long time. But how does one do a relative-strength analysis?

You can use Barron's to do a weekly relative-strength analysis by dividing the price of any stock you are following by the Dow Jones Average, and then plotting the answer on a point-and-figure chart. For instance, if the Dow Jones Average is 10,000 and the stock you are following is selling for $80 per share, dividing the 10,000 into 80 gives you 8.0 (after moving the decimal point). Then with the Dow rising to 13,000 (as it has) and if the price of the stock also rises to $91 per share, 13,000 divided into 91 would be 7.0, after moving the decimal. All of which suggests that although the price of the stock rose, its relative-strength fell, which tells us that the only reason the stock price rose is because the market also rose, and when the market goes sideways or falls someday, this stock will be a good candidate to go down as well.

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Monday, April 23, 2007

Think About It!

The late comedian, Groucho Marx, had some very wise advice to offer all of us on the subject of education:


"I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book."


Words we'd all do well to heed, with television programming being what it is these days!

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Something New!

We've added three new Web sites of interest to our "Links" listing. First item is, AMATEUR INVEST, where you can access free quotes via the Internet in near real-time. Quotes are available from many countries, including: the U.S., Germany, UK, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Sweden, Norway and New Zealand. The program updates the value of your portfolio and all your stocks in multiple currencies. Graphs, charts, reports and alarms are also available. The newest version allows for short selling and more. Amateur Invest is free to try; and costs $49.99 to register.

Next new Web site of interest is Google Finance. This is a good source for basic financial analysis and portfolio management. The homepage is uncluttered and easy to read, and provides links to the day's top news stories, a market summary graph, a stock sector summary, the day's top stock gainers and losers, and links to financial-related video content. For more in-depth financial data, Google Finance provides links to other financial Web sites like Reuters, Market Watch, and Yahoo! Finance. This site is free.

A third new addition is StartupJournal, published by the Wall Street Journal, and it supplements the small business news on Market Watch with exclusive insight and features from both the Journal and StartupJournal. There is a variety of news, advice and features you'll find on the site including advice on franchise opportunities, as well as profiles of some intriguing people and how they're abandoning recent retirement and beginning a new life as entrepreneurs.

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Friday, April 13, 2007

Words of Wisdom!

Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not.
A sense of humor was provided to console him for what he is.


-Horace Walpole, Man of Letters

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Monday, April 09, 2007

Build Your Portfolio With DRIPs

If you're like a lot of people, you may think you need a stockbroker to buy stocks. Or, you may believe you need a lot of money to start investing. In fact, there's a way to buy stock without a broker, and with just a little money. If this sounds too good to be true, then please read on.

The Basics

DRIPs are Dividend Reinvestment Plans, programs run by companies for their shareholders. They reinvest each shareholder's dividends into additional stock purchases. They also allow the shareholder to make additional purchases of stock on a regular basis. Together, these allow the investor to build up a sizeable holding in the company over time, often without ever paying a commission.

To first get started in a DRIP, you need to be a shareholder in the company, although usually you need to first own just one share. But buying that first share can be a big obstacle to DRIP investing - unless you know a way to do it - such as contacting a firm called The Moneypaper, which you can find listed in our "Links" section. And of course, if you know someone who owns stock in a company in whose DRIP plan you'd like to participate, ask them to simply transfer a single share to your name.

Direct Purchase Plans

One of the best things that's happened in DRIP investing has been the explosion in the number of companies that offer direct purchase plans. These allow you to make your initial stock purchase directly from the company, eliminating the problem of buying your first share elsewhere. The kicker with these plans is that they usually require a minimum initial investment that may be too high for some people. While the initial minimum for a few is as low as $50, most are at least $250, with some (like Disney) as high as $1,000.

Getting Signed Up

Once you have your first share, you need to enroll in the company's DRIP plan. You do this by contacting their transfer agent, who will send you an application. Return that application, and you're an official DRIP investor!

Watch Those Nickels and Dimes!

About three-fourths of all DRIPs charge fees, so pay close attention to them because they vary widely and can have a big impact on your investment. Most fees are flat fees so you'll pay the same regardless of the size of your investment. A $5 fee on a $25 investment hurts a lot more than on a larger one, so you may want to consolidate some purchases if you're investing small amounts (for example, by purchasing additional shares quarterly, rather than monthly).

NOTE: Some DRIP plans let you buy stock at a discount to the market price when you make optional cash purchases. These discounts range from one to ten percent. So if your DRIP plan offered a five percent discount, a $100 investment would buy you about $105 worth of stock. Where else can you buy stock on sale?

The Downside: Taxes Can Be Messy

Even when you have your dividends automatically invested to buy additional shares, they're still considered income for tax reasons. You'll receive a 1099 Form from the company each year that will tell you exactly how much you received in dividends.

As long as you own DRIP stock, you'll have to go to some effort to keep good records. The cost basis - the purchase price after commissions or other expenses - determines the amount of capital gain you realize when you sell your shares.

If you reinvest your dividends, or buy more shares through optional cash purchases each month or each quarter for many years, you'll have dozens of different purchases, all with a different cost basis. And while this might seem like a nightmare, fortunately, personal finance programs like Quicken or Microsoft Money make this job much easier.

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Sunday, April 08, 2007

In BARRON'S This Week

The April 9, 2007 edition of Barron's contains the Lipper Quarterly Mutual Fund Performance Report for the first quarter of 2007. If you invest in mutual funds then this quarterly survey should be must reading for you!

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Sunday, April 01, 2007

An Indicator That Speaks Volumes

One way to stay on top of market trends would be to dump stocks that are ready to dive and pick up on those that are ready to soar. This would be a real "no brainer!" The question that naturally follows is this one: Is there an easy way to do that? The answer: You bet there is and here's how:

You can determine the strength of a trend by using one of the simplest indicators out there: volume. Volume is simply the number of shares traded during a given time period - be it hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly. But just because volume is easy to read doesn't mean it isn't important.

When, for example, a stock starts moving higher - and the move is accompanied by high volume - that indicates the stock is in a strong uptrend. Conversely, if it starts moving lower - accompanied by high volume - that indicates the stock is in a strong downtrend.

Spikes in volume are often signs of unanimous thinking. If a volume spike occurs at the top of an uptrend, it often means a bullish consensus has been reached, leaving few buyers on the sidelines and room for a downward move. On the downside, a volume spike marks a capitulation point where investors have thrown in the towel. In that case, selling pressure could reach a point where there are few sellers left, leaving room for an upside move in the stock.

Almost all financial websites that have stock quotes also have a volume scan function. As you analyze a stock, watch the volume to see if it confirms your opinion of what lies ahead for the stock. You can also scan for stocks that are experiencing volume spikes - on the upside or the downside - potentially finding those that are on the verge of a reversal.

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